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Editor
Ravi Rikhye
Associate Editor
Mandeep Singh Bajwa
Chief Technical Officer
Dale Atkins
Publisher
Ravi Rikhye
|
Concise World Armies
2010
Ravi Rikhye
1268 orbat pages
$75
E-book
Order via Paypal, account of
editor@orbat.com
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Somalia
Piracy
September, 2009
30 ships from 17
nations
European
TF Atalanta
HQ Northwood,
London
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Canarias (FF, SPA)
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Bremen (FF, GER)
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Brandenburg (FF, GER)
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Lafeyette (FF, FRA)
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Amethyste (SS, FRA)
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Maestrale (FF, ITA)
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Fridtjof Nasan (FF, NOR)
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Malmo (Corvette, SWE)
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Trosso (Corvette, SWE)
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Stockholm (Corvette, SWE)
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2 P-3, 1 Atlantique, 1 AWACS
Authorized to December 2010
US CTF 151
Turkey, Command
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USS Gettysburg (Flag)
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Canada
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Denmark
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France
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Netherlands
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Pakistan
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Singapore
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United Kingdom
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Australia
Independent command
Japan (2 destroyers)
PLAN (2 destroyers)
India (1 destroyer)
Russia (2 ships)
Support
by US 5th Fleet
CTF 150
Primarily
oriented toward operations in Afghanistan/Iraq but steps in whenever
possible
Ideas
for US Energy Independence
Energy Facts
New At TOE
100+ pages of Vietnam era
TOEs
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America Goes To War Resources
2001-2004
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Concise World Armies 2010
If you have purchased CWA
2009, particularly with updates, there is no need to buy CWA 2010. We
are changing the publication cycle from July 1 each year to 1 January.
There is not enough new material in 2010 as yet to justify the expense
of a new purchase.
E-Book $75; hard copy $200
(two volumes, not yet published) 1268 orbat pages
(11 point type, pages 537 x
697 points).
List of Countries
After you order, kindly let
the Editor know at
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Purchasers are reminded that
95% of the material in CWA 2009 is copyrighted proprietary information and is
sold to you in the explicit understanding it is solely for your private
use.
CWA Updates 2009-2010
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#22. January 8, 2010 |
Lebanon update (Richard M. Bennett) |
|
#23. February 14, 2010 |
US Army, US Marine Corps, and BMD (new 132 pages, earlier
79 pages) |
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#24. February 17, 2010 |
Sweden |
|
#25. March 4, 2010 |
Iran update |
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#26. March 9, 2010 |
Argentina |
New
Orbats open to the
public
12.23.2009 Myanmar 2009 (6
pages) Richard M. Bennett
US Relief Forces to Haiti
January 14, 2010
v.1.1
Terry Shifflet
We've restored orbats open
to the public. Now its up to the public to send orbats. Our staff must focus on keeping Concise World Armies
updated.
0230 GMT March 10, 2010
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Zabul, Afghanistan
Washington Post notes that after US withdrew one of three
infantry battalions deployed in Zabul Province - two American and
one Romanian - for the Marja offensive, Taliban has been returning
in hundreds. The battalion was in the western part of the province.
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As always, the Americans
on the ground know exactly what is happening. They are under no
illusions. Zabul is an important province and has a border with
Pakistan to boot. But the American commanders are clear about their
current mandate: clean out Helmand and Kandahar. To do that, they
say they have to pull in outlying forces. A lot more than Zabul is
going to see the Americans gone. As for the Afghans taking over, in
Zabul - as elsewhere - its clear the Afghans are not taking over
anything.
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That's life when you
fight a war with insufficient resources, and the American commanders
are wasting no time feeling sorry for themselves or Zabul. We
suspect if one could talk to them, privately, they'd say: "This
place was a mess, is a mess, and will forever remain a mess. We're
ready for this last push and ready to go home."
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Who can blame them? If
Orbat.com and its readers grow increasingly frustrated at the
futility of the Afghan war, think how much worse it is for the
soldiers. We're merely bloviating; the greatest risk we run is
carpal tunnel or eyestrain or sore vocal cords. The soldiers
are doing the fighting. They're risking a lot more.
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Sarko AND Carla
having affairs He is - ahem - "dating" his 40-year old
environment minister, who is also a karate champ. Carla is - um -
"dating" a 37-year old musician sic years her junior (he looks like
he's 17 to the Editor, but then at Editor's age anyone under 60
looks like a teenager).
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Got to give the French
credit: equal opportunity philandering and all that.
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Meanwhile, Editor still
has no date. Sigh.
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Gotta to give the
Chinese credit...Editor fell in love with America because in the
1950s and 1960s because it was the land of engineers. Now America
has become the land of Starbucks and the Chinese have snatch the
engineer's crown.
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Their latest scheme is
to extend their high-speed rail network to London through 16
countries. The trains will run at about 350-km, making the journey
between Beijing and London in 48-hours.
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The Chinese say the
project will take time - 10-15 years. Surely the Chinese jest. In
Washington DC, the capital of the Free World, serious planning for a
Metrorail extension to Dulles began in 2000. The Silver Line will be
complete in 2016, or sixteen years. It will be 37-km long versus
~8000-km for the Chinese proposed project.
0230 GMT March 9, 2010
Taliban versus Taliban in
Afghanistan
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/03/taliban_hig_infighti.php
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Israel plans civilian
N-power Israel is suffering a critical short of power. It is
operating at 98% of available capacity, with only 2% in reserve. One
big plant goes off line and you have a crisis.
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Israeli
environmentalists have stalled a coal plant, so thoughts have turned
to N-power.
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Small problem, the
Israelis are telling themselves. There's the IAEA and all that rot.
But, they comfort themselves, perhaps a deal similar to India's can
be worked out. India, they say, is not an NPT signatory but was
"allowed" to develop civilian N-power
http://www.jpost.com/HealthAndSci-Tech/ScienceAndEnvironment/Article.aspx?id=170440
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Sigh. why is it no one
offers the Editor the real good stuff they keep for their private
use? Selfish, selfish, selfish.
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India was never
"allowed" to develop civilian N-power despite not signing the NPT.
It developed civilian N-power, then weaponized and declared itself
an N-weapon state in the late 1990s. It continued to develop
civilian N-power all the while. The idea of a separate agreement
with India where it would open its civilian reactors to IAEA
inspection while keeping its N-weapon plants safeguard-free was
developed by the Americans as a way of getting into India's civilian
reactor pants while trying to find a way into its N-weapons pants.
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India's agreement to the
deal was one of the stupidest things the country has done in 60
years, but anyway, the deal is done and it does seem to have a lot
of support in India even though it has clamped a lid on future
Indian N-tests. And anyway, the Editor makes his fair share of dumb
mistakes. Today there were donuts in the staff lounge, and the
Editor took only two, as opposed to his usual quota of four to six
(if he can get away with it), under some poorly thought out idea
that more than two would gain him weight. The reality is if you eat
8 donuts at a sitting (Editor has done that) you are so stuffed that
you skip half of lunch and so you actually save yourself the 300
calories you would otherwise have eaten had you had a whole lunch.
(We understand this sounds crazy, but really, it is no more crazy
than India's agreement to the US plan.)
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Israel has no civilian
N-facilities, and what's more, refuses to declare itself a N-weapon
state. Further, there is a slight difference between a market for 2
reactors at the max - Israel is less than half the size of Delhi -
and 200 reactors. The Indian market is big enough for everyone,
which is why UK, Russia, France etc supported the two-track US plan.
Who is going to risk political capital the way the US did for India
for the sake of two reactors?
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Yeh Hai Pakistan
Mayree Jan (This is Pakistan, my heart.) The Pakistanis first
say they have arrested the AQ spokesperson, who happens to be an
American convert to Islam. Then they say, sorry, mistaken identity,
initial reports were not right. "Scuze me, please, aren't you
supposed to confirm this sort of thing before jumping to announce
it?"
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Then the top Taliban
commander in Baijur, whom the Pakistanis said was deader than a door
knob, turns out to be hale and hearty. This goes on all the time.
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By the way, the
Pakistanis are hardly unique in speaking before thinking. Its a
subcontinetal thing.
0230 GMT March 8, 2010
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Hugo says Hilary is a
blond Condaleeza according to an article forwarded by reader
Luxembourg. Er, shouldn't that be "blonde"? But no matter, much is
lost in translation. We suspect Hugo was smacked around but good by
his mama; he seems to have a morbid fear of strong women.
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Hugo says all is well
with Spain the Spanish PM was only asking a few questions, says
Hugo. I answered, and the matter is behind us, he says.
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Now let's see. If a
judge indicts the Editor, and he gets a call asking a few questions,
if Editor thinks the matter is over, is he (a) an idiot; (b) a
moron; (c) a retard; or all three?
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Hugo doesn't believe in
the rule of law, so one supposes he would have no idea of how legal
proceedings are gone about.
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Hugo wouldn't have
talked to the judge, and further along, he would maintain he was
railroaded because he never got a chance to explain. So the Spanish
PM called him. But the Spanish PM was not making a friendly call out
of curiosity. He was in effect recording your statement under
authority of the judge.
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This matter has not
ended, it has begun, and knowing you, Hugo, you probably blabbed
away non-stop instead of letting a lawyer do the talking. (Do they
have Miranda rights in Spain?)
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Now, of course we don't
know how this will play out. There are all sorts of reasons why the
Spanish PM may want this matter dropped. But in Spain, it's not up
to him, it's up to the judge. If the PM is to go against the judge,
to us it seems that Parliament would have to give permission.
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Look at it another way.
If the Spanish PM didn't want to harm relations with Hugo, he could
simply have told the court "you guys handle it, why are you
involving me?"
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We suspect the Spanish
PM called because (a) he has seen the evidence; (b) he is very upset
about it.
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Why should Spain get
upset about FARC? After all, US has much the same evidence of Hugo
and FARC, US hasn't sought an indictment of the man, and the US is
much more directly affected by Hugo than is Spain.
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The reasons the Spanish
are upset is because of the ETA connection. That any state has any
dealings of any sort with ETA would send the Spanish government and
establishment straight up the wall.
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Aircraft would have
survived Detroit bomber says a British aviation expert
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/8547329.stm who conducted an
actual explosive test in a derelict Boeing 747 at BBC's request. The
explosion would have killed the bomber and the passenger next to
him, injured others, but no one else would have died and the
aircraft's flightworthiness would not have been impaired.
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We had to read this
three times to make sure we weren't seeing wrong: "However, the
experts said that the death of the suspected bomber and the
passenger sitting next to him would have been traumatic for
passengers.
"It would have been quite horrific. Obviously the blast itself
would cause eardrum rupture," said Dr Wyatt. Captain Joseph said the
noise and the smoke would have been awful, "not to mention the parts
of the bodies that were disintegrated as part of the explosion".
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Oh the poor widdle
things! We weep for the trauma they would have suffered at
witnessing body parts flying about. Good grief, mon. What about the
trauma they would have suffered if the bomb had blown a hole in the
plane?
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India and Pakistan
Two readers have written asking how can things be put right
between India and Pakistan. Both readers, a westerner and an Indian,
are appalled at Pakistan's lost opportunities since 1947 and the
cost of the rivalry to India and also to the Pakistani people on
account of the rivalry.
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We wanted to assure the
readers we have not forgotten them. We've been trying to figure out
a simple, short answer that will make sense to people who are
unaware of the myriad details of the conflict.
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More acronyms
People are suggesting BRIC is dead - Brazil-Russia-India-China -
because of the slowdown in Russian economic growth and its seemingly
unsolvable political and economic structural problems.
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So just in time we get
an acronym: Portugal-Ireland-Greece-Spain - that's PIGS to you.
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Don't people realize
that words have real power? When you create an acronym to simplify a
complicated concept, you end up defining reality in a certain way.
Then you react in a certain way, and miss all the subtleties of the
situation. Then obviously your solutions are going to end up wrong
and you're going to create a bigger mess.
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What, you say
skeptically, words can do that?
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Indeed they can.
Think about the misconceptions that arise from calling American
states Red and Blue. Someone did a graphic by counties of the
2008 Presidential vote, and guess what? The United states ended up
not Red or Blue, but Purple. Meaning that actually Americans
have a common consensus, whereas the Red/Blue division polarizes the
discussion and creates something that is not the reality. It does
not help that extremists on either end of the spectrum grab the most
media attention.
0230 GMT March 7, 2010
We did not update yesterday:
Editor was researching and by the time he looked at the clock it was
past bedtime.
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Pakistan to ask EU
for compensation for being front-line in GWOT Pakistan's case is
that it has suffered $45-billion in economic losses because
of the GWOT, and it wants aid/trade to compensate.
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You have to admire
Pakistan's chutzpa. Pakistan is a front-line state in the GWOT, but
in the sense of being the major terrorist player. Editor must be
careful to state he is not attaching any moral judgment to that
statement. We've said many times that the support of
insurgent/terror attacks against India and Afghanistan are part of
Pakistan national security policy. We're not going to comment on
Pakistan's support of AQ and if this is related to its national
security policy, because we don't know enough. We don't believe
Pakistan supports AQ's attacks outside South Asia because it
serves no Pakistani purpose. Rather, Pakistan turns a blind eye to
AQ's out-of-area attacks because of whatever utility AQ has for the
local situation. What this utility is, we don't know.
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Pakistan's behavior is
straightforward and easily understood. The great mystery of the GWOT
as far as we are concerned, is US behavior. Editor hopes he lives
long enough to see the first historical judgments on the US
misadventure in South Asia.
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Can a country be
awarded a Klasse Klowne Awarde? Orbat.com has not been giving
these out lately because we feel there's very little happening that
deserves this highest of our awardes. So now we learn from Times of
India that a judge estimates India will require 320 years (you read
right - three hundred and twenty years) to clear the backlog of
court cases. So we're wondering if we should give India a KKA. Your
thoughts are welcome.
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BTW, we're having
trouble calculating India's GDP. If we go by official economic
stats, by end 2010 it should be $1.2-trillion (at Rupees 46 to the
dollar). If, however, we go by announcements that say India's Fiscal
2010-11 deficit is 5.5% of GDP, we get a GDP of $1.5 trillion.
Either way, this doesn't count the non-declared economy. People like
to talk about about how large this is in PRC, but if you want large
in capital letters, best study India. People argue that if you count
the non-declared economy, India's GDP growth is faster than China's.
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UK Special Forces
suffer crippling losses in the Afghan and Iraq Wars.
Approximately 120 have been killed or wounded so badly they can no
longer serve in first line positions. The Afghan-Iraq breakdown is
2-1. The problem, as you will see from the Times article
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/afghanistan/article7052605.ece
is that the UK SF are very small, possibly around 500 active duty
members, and since UK cannot contribute mass to GWOT, its been
riding its SF very hard.
0230 GMT March 5, 2010
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Hugo indicted in
Spain for collaboration with FARC and ETA to kill Columbia's
President Uribe. Reader Luxembourg reminds us about the indictment
issues by a Spanish judge. Several ETA members who fled Spain
settled in Venezuela, in case you're wondering about the Basque
separatist terror movement's involvement.
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The Spanish Prime
Minister has asked for an explanation from Hugo and spoken to him on
the telephone. Hugo says there is nothing to explain as he has
nothing to do with FARC or ETA, and says if Spain persists,
relations between the two countries will be harmed.
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Here's the problem.
Spanish judges rarely if ever back down once they've indicted
someone, and this one seems to have enough evidence that the Spanish
PM is asking for answers from Hugo. This makes the matter much more
serious than if the judge had been an iconoclast or publicity hound.
This now on a government to government level.
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If the judge issues
arrest warrants, then Hugo has a rather serious problem. We'll have
to wait and see how this unrolls.
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US/NATO reorganize
command for Kandahar offensive Regional Command South has been
split in two: Regional Command South West, which focus on Helmand,
and Regional Command South East, which will focus entirely on
Kandahar. This is an indication of how seriously US/NATO take their
southern offensives.
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As always, the defeat of
the insurgents in Kandahar is foregone. The problem - as we have
repeatedly said - is that there is no way the Afghan security forces
can achieve sufficient capability to fight the Taliban on their own.
Once US and NATO withdraw, Pakistan Army will step in openly as it
did 1994-2001, so that even if the Afghan forces achieve a certain
minimal efficiency - even this is in doubt - they will not be able
to fight the Pakistanis.
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When we say openly, we
don't mean Pakistan send brigades into Afghanistan. It formed new
brigades, manned by Pakistan Army soldiers and officers on official
leave from the Army. The brigades included armor and artillery.
Artillery is something at which the Pakistanis are quite
proficient, and we just do not see how the Afghan Army will hold
together when artillery and armor is thrown into the mix. Right now
the Afghan Army cannot even protect itself against Taliban armed
with just company-level weapons.
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Moreover, please
remember that the Taliban is an irregular force where fighters fight
when they want and go home when they want. The Pakistanis are
long-service professionals. And please don't think the performance
of the Pakistan Army against insurgents is in any way indicative of
its actual capabilities. It has been fighting a mock war to impress
the Americans and there is also vast sympathy for the Taliban in the
Pakistani rank and file. And why not: the Taliban is just another
arm of the Pakistan military. When it comes time to throw off the
disguises, the Pakistan Army will do very well.
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One thing to watch out
for is a Pakistan copy of India's 1971 strategy. India recognized
the East Pakistan government as the legitimate government and as far
as the Indians were concerned, they were merely responding to a
request for help from the legal government.
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Pakistan acquires
FFG-7 class frigate from the US and is negotiating for five
more. It is probable the ships will replace Pakistan Navy's six
Amazon Type 21 frigates. Pakistan has two new China built F-22P
frigates with a third due this year and a fourth under local
assembly. Pakistan's Type 21s were commissioned in the Royal Navy in
1974-78, and transferred in 1992-93 after US sanctioned Pakistan
over its N-program and refused to extend the lease of eight US
frigates.
0230 GMT March 4, 2010
Read Bill Roggio on Pakistan
statement that Baijur is cleared
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/03/bajaur_cleared_of_ta.php
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Pakistan searches for
four army men in Benazir murder says Dawn of Pakistan. The main
accused, who is absconding, has eight relatives in the Army. Four
are serving, but four, who had retired before the murder,
cannot be traced.
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Correction The
Pakistani cleric who condemned suicide bombers does not live in
Pakistan, but in the UK. So at least he will be safe.
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Syria supplies SAM-16
Igla to Hezbollah says Debka. It further says that Israel had
warned Syria any supply of strategic weapons to Hezbollah would lead
to Israeli strikes against Syria. If this is true, Syria appears not
to be overly concerned. Igla is not a strategic weapon, but if
available in sufficient numbers, could marginally erode Israeli air
supremacy. Igla is a contemporary of the US Stinger and embodies
technology almost 30 years old.
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The Dubai police
chief says from now on anyone with an Israeli accent will be
refused entry if the passport is issued by a European country.
Dashed clever, the Dubai police chief. The Editor knows a few
Israeli dual nationals and they speak with impeccable American,
Australian, and British accents. Of course, police chief will say he
has no problem with dual-nationals, only with people with Israeli
accents.
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Meanwhile, we wonder if
El Chiefy has an opinion on why many of alleged murder team used
genuine passports?
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As if the whole circus
is not confusing enough, Al Jazeera says many of the false passport
people used their false documents to obtain employment with American
companies.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2010/03/201033465170139.html
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Dashed clever these
Israelis. They'll go to any extent to hide their real origins. So
Mossad has large hit teams with long-term identities all worked out,
for example, a second life in America, but is so stupid that Dubai
so easily - within days - busted their cover identities?
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Oh yes, Chiefy also says
he will seek arrest warrants against the Israeli Prime Minister and
Mossad head. This man protests too much. Orbat.com intelligence
sources tell us Chiefy is actually on Mossad's payroll and in fact
is not even a human being, but an advanced Israeli biorobot. Has
anyone checked Chiefy's accent?
0230 GMT March 3, 2010
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NATO general
estimates Taliban strength at 25-36,000, and the
leadership (all levels) at 900. This is the first time we, at least,
have seen anything resembling a definitive estimate. We assume this
is only the Afghanistan Taliban: the lot based in Pakistan could
number somewhere between 50-100,000.
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Its hard to tell
exactly, because most Taliban fighters wander in and out at will,
fighting when they want, and relaxing when the want. The next
problem is, how do you count the fighters? After all, if you counted
fighters in a Western Army, even if you include all combat support
arms, you probably would get 1 in 5 soldiers as fighters. The
Taliban have a large number of supporters who help out at need. We
don't think the NATO estimates includes these people.
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Original story at
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/afghanistan/article7047321.ece
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Pakistan says Baijur
cleared and it will next advance on Orakzai and Khyber Agencies.
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Now, before you start
snickering - as you would be justified to do given how many times
Pakistan has claimed victory over the same battlefields - our
information is that for the last 8-9 months Pakistan has been
furiously negotiating with its recalcitrant Taliban groups to get
them to focus on Afghanistan. Previously, the "bad" Taliban groups
fell over themselves laughing. But now, after leadership losses
caused by UAV strikes and very serious civilian damage caused by
Pakistan forces, it's possible that the "bad" Taliban are willing to
agree to get back to the original task, i.e., Afghanistan.
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So it is possible, we
feel, that Pakistan can show the US positive "gains" by appearing to
defeat the Pakistan-facing insurgents, while actually stepping up
pressure on US in Afghanistan.
-
You have to remember why
some of the Taliban groups turned against Pakistan. It was because
they felt the Pakistan government had become to cozy with the
Americans, and they resented restrictions Pakistan asked them to
accept to make it look to the Americans that they, the Pakistanis,
were pulling their weight in this war.
-
Pakistan's greatest
enticement to the "bad" Taliban is that the Americans will leave
soon, so why are you guys beating us up. Let's focus on
Afghanistan, and if you behave you'll have a seat at the table. If
you don't, well, the US will keep UAV-ing you and maybe you won't
have a seat at the table.
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Pakistan cleric
issues a 600-page fatwa against suicide bombers as being
anti-Islam. We applaud this man's courage. We hope other clerics
follow him. And we very much hope that Pakistan, having now really
suffered at the hands of suicide bombers, will see it is in
Pakistan's interests these attacks stop, even if it means giving up
a weapon against India. If the Pakistanis see sense, they will
protect this cleric and others who speak out against the bombers.
0230 GMT March 2, 2010
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President Obama
pondering sharp reductions in US N-arsenal but still refuses to
accept no-first-use doctrine.
-
President Obama has to
safeguard the US national interest as he sees best, but we'd
appreciate if US defense experts could just sit still for a minute
and listen: as long as the US believes it has to keep a N-force of
thousands of warheads, even if that comes down to 1000 or 800, there
is absolutely no country in the world - and we include India,
Pakistan, Iran etc - who will de-nuclearize. America can try till
the cows come home, are sent to the glue factory, the glue is
recycled and maybe nano-technology is used to turn the glue into new
cows, no one, but no one, will agree. If the US cannot see that,
then Editor has to regretfully conclude American planners are
incompetent. The only the only way to get anyone to de-nuclearize is
to offer to get rid of the US arsenal as part of universal
N-disarmament.
-
Further, if US will not
renounce first-use, well, sorry about that, but everyone else will
consider N-weapons not just legitimate, but imperative to deter the
US. If US N-planners cannot see that, then - sorry about that - we
have to suspect they are regularly dropped on their heads from great
heights.
-
The reality of the
matter is that the US tacitly accepts N-weapons for allies - such as
South Africa in the past and Israel in the present, and expects
everyone else not a US ally to give up their weapons. The US has
zero credibility in the matter of N-disarmament.
-
If the US feels it must
posses not just N-weapons, but a vast array and the right of
first-use, we are not going to judge the US. Where we will judge the
US is in its ever-present hypocrisy on the issue. We'd suggest the
US simply shut up about other people's N-programs because all that
hypocrisy does is aggravate others and makes the US look foolish.
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India stages
offensive airpower exercise Observers from 30 countries were
invited - but not from China and Pakistan. The exercise was designed
to demonstrate precision-bombing capabilities such as are required
to eliminate terror training camps in Pakistan Kashmir.
-
It was hardly a subtle
message, nor was subtlety the intent.
-
Our problem with such
demonstrations is that Pakistan is perfectly aware that Indian
airpower can attack the terror camps - and probably without entering
Pakistan-controlled air space in most cases. But the Pakistanis
believe, with excellent justification based on decades of experience
with India, that India does not have the guts to hit back.
-
So what's neccessary is
not to stage another exercise to impress anyone, but to actually get
up and do the job. That will send the message India wants, not
puffery. To us this exercise looks a lot like whistling in the dark,
from the political angle. From the military angle, like anyone else,
India has to stage full-scale exercises on a regular basis. As far
as we are concerned it does nowhere near enough in this area.
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A TOE question from a
reader What is the TOE of a German mechanized infantry company?
Do the company's platoons have three Marder 2s or four?
-
Editor's note Can
any of our readers help: I think its 2 Marders in the company HQ and
three platoons with 4 Marders each, but its been years since I
looked into any TOEs except for US and South Asia.
0230 GMT March 1, 2010
Is Hakeemullah Mesud dead?
Top Pakistan/US officials say he is. But Long War Journal sources say he
may well be alive. Read
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/02/taliban_release_vide.php
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Dubai police chief
wants Mossad head to man up and admit Hamas murder If this is
what passes for Arab cunning, then we must admit we have
overestimated the Arabs. We'd like the police chief to man up and
admit he has no idea who dunnit. We think we're pretty cunning too.
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Reader Luxembourg
forwards a Wall Street Journal article by former US CIA operative
Robert Baer. Mr. Baer does not think a 26-person hit team is too
large. We were willing to accept 16-18 as neccessary and were highly
skeptical when the Dubai police increased the suspects to 26. He
further says that Dubai has top-notch security consultants that can
quickly correlate cell-phone calls and images from security cameras
and suggests that several calls placed to suspect numbers may have
provided the consultants with clues as to identities.
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We're wondering what
happens is an innocent guest at the hotel happens to overhear a
friendly accent and says to one of the suspects "What ho, Old Bean,
are you also from XYZ?" The suspects, acting normally, have a normal
conversation with their fellow countryperson and continue on to
their skullduggery, but the cameras have captured the innocent
person talking to the guilty. So does he now get labeled as suspect?
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Intelligence agencies do
make the most ghastly errors and to say: "Oh, the Mossad is so
professional it would never muck up like this" is to use illogical
reasoning.
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At the same time, we
have to ask: Israeli informers permeate Palestine. Why go to all
this trouble to kill the man abroad? And, okay, so perhaps there is
a reason he had to be killed abroad. We find it difficult to believe
that Mossad did not know about Dubai cameras etc.
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You may say, "Well, what
about the American snatch team who got the cleric out of Italy? They
left a a trail as wide as the Mississippi." We're unsure if that lot
was actually undercover. They seem to have used their legal
diplomatic identities. They would have seen no need to use covers if
they were working with an Italian police or intelligence agency.
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Of course, the general
problems with these episodes is the more you analyze, the more you
are likely to miss the truth.
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A different
perspective on Pakistani militants A Pakistani economist says
that "Various groups find it extremely easy to create parallel
states within the state, when the "national" state fails to take
care of individual security and cannot provide basic services such
as food, shelter, health, and education to everyone. Growing
militarization in Pakistan can be understood in this context.
Generally "militants" are perceived to be Islamic hard-liners.
However, many "militants" are those who are outraged by chronic
hunger, endemic corruption, unfair courts, and the government’s
inability to supply basic services."
http://www.jang.com.pk/thenews/feb2010-weekly/nos-27-02-2010/pol1.htm
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He further notes that
"Food security ranking of 131 districts in Pakistan, according to
FIP 2009, indicates that 48.5 percent of the total population in 76
out of 131 districts of Pakistan is food insecure. The population in
another 26 districts is on borderline and extremely vulnerable to
any external shock.
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The 10 most food
insecure districts according to this report include Dera Bugti, Musa
Khel, Upper Dir, North Waziristan, Muhmand, Dalbidin, South
Waziristan, Orakzai, and Panjgur. Other worst food insecure
districts, according to FIP2009 are Bajur, Laki Marwat, Lower Dir,
Shangla and Malakand etc. The international community might not have
heard of these districts in the context of food insecurity. However,
many people would easily recall that these districts are perceived
as the "axis of evil" within Pakistan. There is no empirical
evidence to prove that food insecurity is the only cause of
militancy in the above-mentioned districts. However it is an
established fact that food insecurity leads to violence and
conflict."
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We've been told by
Pakistanis that most militants are not driven by religion, but
because of the feudal nature of the Pakistani state, and
particularly because the little man gets no justice when he runs
afoul of vested interests.
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The first Patriot
battery to deploy to Poland as part of the interim ABM defense
will arrive in April. Readers will recall that President Obama
cancelled deployment of 10 Ground Based Interceptors on grounds that
the utility of the move was not proved, and promised to replace them
with 30 ground based Aegis 3s in one field, with another field to
follow somewhere in North Europe. At least one Aegis ship will be
kept on permanent station in the Persian Gulf, at least as part of
the interim defense.
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